Petrol price warning: South Africans face R2-plus hike and record prices in October

South African motorists are facing a brutal October at the pumps, with petrol currently on track to increase by more than R2 a litre and prices potentially climbing to record highs.

Mid-September data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to increases of around R2.01 to R2.02 a litre for 93 unleaded petrol and R2.14 for 95 unleaded.

If the current projections hold until the official adjustment on Wednesday, 7 October 2026, inland 95 petrol is expected to reach around R29.06 a litre, taking it past the previous record high of R28.06.

Coastal 95 petrol is projected to reach approximately R28.19 a litre.

Diesel motorists aren’t escaping the pressure either, with increases of more than R2 a litre currently projected for some grades.

However, these are mid-month estimates rather than the final October fuel prices, and the outlook could still change before the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources announces the official adjustments.

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October fuel price projections at a glance

Based on the latest mid-September data, motorists are currently looking at:

• Petrol 93: increase of R2.01 to R2.02 per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of R2.14 per litre
• Diesel 500ppm: increase of R1.71 per litre
• Diesel 50ppm: increase of R2.04 to R2.05 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of R2.18 per litre

These remain projections and are subject to change before October’s official fuel price adjustment.

What could you pay at the pumps?

If the projected increases materialise, some fuel prices will move into record territory.

• Petrol 95 inland: around R29.06 per litre
• Petrol 95 coastal: around R28.19 per litre
• Diesel 50ppm inland wholesale: around R31.60 per litre

Inland petrol 95 would move past its previous record high of R28.06 per litre.

The projected R31.60 per litre wholesale price for inland 50ppm diesel would also exceed the previous May record of R31.38.

What is pushing South Africa’s fuel prices higher?

International oil prices are one of the major factors behind the deteriorating fuel price outlook.

Brent crude has breached $100 a barrel and has been trading closer to $110 as ongoing conflict in the Middle East disrupts international energy markets.

This has contributed to severe international product under-recoveries, placing additional upward pressure on South Africa’s fuel prices.

Government unlikely to provide fuel tax relief

Motorists hoping for government intervention to soften the increase are also facing disappointment.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has indicated that the government cannot absorb or offset the increases through the national budget using fuel tax relief, as doing so would require additional government borrowing.

That leaves motorists exposed to international oil movements as October’s official fuel price adjustment approaches.

For now, the projected increases remain preliminary.

Fuel price calculations continue throughout the month, meaning movements in international petroleum prices and other components of the fuel price calculation before the end of September will determine exactly what motorists pay from 7 October.

But based on the mid-September picture, South Africans are heading towards one of the most painful trips to the petrol station yet.

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