South Africa faces hotter, drier months as powerful El Niño develops

South Africa is likely to experience below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures over the coming months as a strong El Niño event develops in the Pacific Ocean.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) warned on Tuesday that the El Niño event is expected to intensify further and could become the strongest in living memory.

The latest seasonal forecast for October to December 2026 indicates that below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome across most of South Africa, while temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

Similar conditions are forecast from November 2026 to January 2027.

El Niño could exceed 3°C threshold

A strong El Niño occurs when three-monthly averaged sea surface temperature anomalies over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean exceed 1.5°C compared with climatology.

During a very strong El Niño, temperatures in this part of the ocean are 2°C warmer than normal.

According to SAWS, the latest forecasts indicate that the current event is very likely to exceed the 3°C threshold.

Weekly averaged sea surface temperature anomalies over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean are already above the threshold used to define a very strong El Niño.

Below-normal rainfall most likely

El Niño events are generally associated with drier and hotter conditions across southern Africa, although SAWS cautioned that the impact is not the same during every event.

“Most El Niño events bring below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to the southern African region. Two of the most impactful El Niño events for the region were those of 1982/83 and 2015/16, which brought widespread drought.

“The very strong El Niño event of 1997/98, however, was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of South Africa’s summer rainfall region. It should therefore be noted that, although below-normal rainfall is statistically the most likely outcome in southern Africa this summer, not every El Niño event is associated with drought,” the weather service said.

For October to December 2026, SAWS currently expects below-normal rainfall to be the most likely outcome across most of the country.

Above-normal temperatures are also expected during the period.

SAWS warns 2027 could be warmest year on record

The outlook remains similar heading into summer, with warmer and drier conditions expected to continue from November 2026 into January 2027.

“The rainfall and temperature forecast for November 2026 to January 2027 is very similar to that for October to December 2026, with drier and warmer conditions over most of the country the most likely outcome.

“It should be noted that the expected very strong 2026/27 El Niño event, combined with global warming, will likely result in 2027 being the warmest year ever recorded. The 2015/16 very strong El Niño event brought unprecedented heatwaves to the southern African region,” the weather service said.

SAWS said southern Africa has continued to warm in the 11 years since the 2015/16 El Niño event.

Severe heatwaves could become more frequent

The combination of below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures could increase the frequency of heatwaves across the region.

“If the 2026/27 El Niño event brings the expected below-normal rainfall to southern Africa, heatwaves are likely to occur more frequently.

“These heatwaves have the potential to be severe. However, as current forecasts indicate the potential for an exceptionally strong El Niño, uncertainty remains about its eventual strength and regional impacts.

“For this reason, the extent of expected heatwaves and water scarcity associated with the event will be closely monitored and communicated to disaster management structures, weather-sensitive industries, the media and the public,” SAWS said.

The weather service has advised the public and weather-sensitive industries to keep track of its monthly seasonal forecast updates and daily short-term forecasts.

These updates will provide more information as the El Niño develops and help people prepare for potential heatwaves and other high-impact weather events.

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