Petrol price could near R30 a litre in October as fuel projections worsen

South African motorists could face another major fuel price increase in October, with the latest projections putting petrol close to R30 a litre and some diesel prices above R33 a litre inland.

Latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data shows significant under-recoveries across petrol and diesel as international petroleum product prices remain elevated.

Current projections point to petrol increases approaching R3 a litre, while some diesel grades are also showing potential increases of around R3 a litre.

However, these are not the final October fuel prices.

The figures fluctuate daily according to international petroleum product prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate, with the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) responsible for announcing the official adjustment before it takes effect.

How much could petrol increase in October?

CEF projections reported on 23 September indicate substantial increases across all major fuel grades.

The latest estimates put the potential changes at around:

• Petrol 93: R2.66 to R2.71 a litre increase
• Petrol 95: R2.83 to R2.88 a litre increase
• Diesel 0.05% wholesale: around R2.60 to R2.61 a litre increase
• Diesel 0.005% wholesale: around R3.00 to R3.01 a litre increase
• Illuminating paraffin: around R3.15 a litre increase

The ranges reflect differences between the latest available CEF snapshots reported on 21 and 23 September.

The final figures will depend on how fuel recoveries move during the remainder of the month.

Petrol could approach R30 a litre

If current projections hold, inland motorists could see 95-octane petrol climb to approximately R29.75 a litre, while 93-octane petrol could reach around R29.42.

At the coast, 95-octane petrol is projected at approximately R28.88 a litre.

Diesel users face even higher projected prices.

The wholesale price of 0.05% diesel is currently projected to reach approximately R31.72 a litre inland and R30.85 at the coast.

For 0.005% diesel, the projected wholesale price is around R33.06 inland and R31.80 at the coast.

Diesel retail prices are not regulated, so motorists do not necessarily pay the published wholesale price at filling stations.

What is driving the October fuel price increase?

International petroleum product prices are responsible for most of the pressure on South Africa’s fuel price recoveries.

Oil prices spent much of September above $100 a barrel amid tensions in the Middle East and disruptions affecting supply.

However, there was some relief on 23 September as oil dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time in weeks.

The rand has provided some protection against the international price pressure, although movements in the currency have not been enough to offset the impact of higher international fuel costs.

If the decline in oil prices continues, the projected October increases could moderate before the final adjustment is calculated.

October fuel prices are not final yet

Motorists should treat the current figures as projections rather than confirmed increases.

The CEF calculates fuel price indicators daily on behalf of the DMPR, taking international and domestic factors into account.

This means the under-recovery can improve or deteriorate before the monthly adjustment is finalised.

The official October fuel price changes are scheduled to take effect on Wednesday, 7 October 2026.

Until the DMPR announces the final adjustment, motorists will not know exactly how much more they will pay at the pumps.

What is already clear from the latest data, however, is that another substantial increase is currently on the cards.

Read Inbound SA online